Is Aggressive Better?

Following a loss at Northern Iowa in which the Panthers shot a record-setting 82 percent in the first half and 70 percent in the game, the Bears are 0-5 in Missouri Valley Conference play. It's miraculous that Missouri State lost by only 14 points, which the Bears accomplished by out shooting UNI at the free throw line.

Northern Iowa was outrageously efficient in their scoring which made me wonder just how efficient the Bears have been this year. The outcome of some research was not surprising.

After a 7-3 start, head coach Cuonzo Martin has seen his team lose six games in a row for the first time in 15 years. While the losses cannot be pinned squarely on Martin's shoulders, some aspects of his coaching style concern me.

First, there is evidence that Martin is not nearly as concerned with statistics as his his predecessor, Barry Hinson. Martin has made it known that he prefers an "aggressive" style of basketball featuring pressure defense similar to the style Southern Illinois and Purdue run. With that comes an aggressive mindset to offense, as the first-year coach has reportedly encouraged his players to take an open shot at every opportunity.

Both can be good strategies, as pressure defense is designed to force opponents into bad shots and turnovers, and taking an open shot is, well, common sense. But from the offensive standpoint, Martin may be taking the idea too far and may be costing his team wins in the process. For example, following the team's win over Central Arkansas, Martin commented on freshman guard Kyle Weems' poor shooting night:

"I was impressed when I saw that Kyle Weems was 2-for-10. Some might say that was a poor percentage. But he was aggressive. That was a plus for him."

Clearly seeing potential in his freshman, Martin has consistently pushed Weems all season to be more assertive in his style of play. Despite that aggressiveness, Weems had to use 10 shots to score nine points, which is an unproductive scoring game no matter which way you slice it. There is nothing impressive about shooting 20 percent from the floor, and whether Martin admits it or not, Weems did more to hurt his team than help it on that particular evening.

The shoot first, ask questions later philosphy goes a long way towards explaining why the Bears have struggled this season. It's obvious that Martin's team has been outscored for the season, but a better way of telling the story is not through counting stats, but rate stats:

              FGM     FGA     PTS     PPS
BEARS         315     816     964     1.18
OPPONENTS     340     772     983     1.27

PPS stands for Points Per Shot, which is one of my favorite advanced basketball statistics. PPS measures how many points a team scores on average every time it takes a shot. This seven percent advantage MSU's opponents have in PPS is evident by looking at the number of three-pointers the Bears have taken this season, as Martin's team has taken 104 more shots than their oppoents from beyond the arc. That can be a great strategy for a team loaded with sharpshooters, but the Bears are far from that distinction. Barring a sudden improvement in shooting percentage, chucking threes is not going to get this team anywhere.

Missouri State opponents have not only outscored the Bears by 19 points on the year, but have done so by using 44 fewer shots which means they have been far more efficient at scoring points. In a game with a finite number of possessions, it is imperative that teams make the most of every trip down the floor. In my mind, Martin should place more focus on efficiency and less on aggressiveness. No matter how tough a team's mindset is, the only thing that matters is having more points than the opponent at the end of the game.