Wichita: Still Not a State, Still Winless (The Rewrite)

Since Blogger ate my original post, this is the rewrite. Frustrating, sure, but good practice for the semester when rough drafts will be my life.

Anyway, the Bears picked up their first Missouri Valley Conference victory of the season, a 68-55 win over Wichita State. A few thoughts from the game:

Think the Bears didn't miss Chris Cooks during the time he was injured? The Bears senior started the scoring with a layup and was terrific the rest of the game too, picking up a career-high 23 points and 11 rebounds. Cooks played like the guy Barry Hinson probably envisioned, as he scored most of his points slashing to the basket. The difference this time was that he didn't pick up two or three offensive fouls on the way.

The Bears did a much better job defensively tonight by getting in position quicker. During their six-game losing streak, Missouri State appeared listless on defense and were slow getting to spots. This allowed opponents open cut lanes to the basket and easy points. That was not the case tonight, as the Bears looked like they had fresh legs underneath them and locked down Wichita State's offense.

Individually, posts Wade Knapp, Will Creekmore, and Isaiah Rhine* were especially impressive. Coach Cuonzo Martin kept at least two of them on the floor for a significant part of the game and positioned them near Shockers forward Ramon Clemente, one of the best rebounders in the conference.

*You've got to love the way Rhine rebounds the ball. Grabs it out of the air and cradles it like a baby. The big guy has good hands.

The two centers on the floor sandwiched Clemente all night, denying him easy looks at the basket. Their efforts were successful, as Clemente was held to his season scoring average at six points and picked up only three rebounds, significantly under his season average of 8.3.

Missouri State may have lost another guard tonight as well. As I anticipated, freshman Cardell McFarland came into the game early. Unfortunately, he also left the game early after appearing to have aggravated his ankle injury. I have not gotten word on his status, so if anybody has any information, please leave a comment.

Finally, how about Justin Fuehrmeyer? It was just another day at the office for Fuehry with eight assists and zero turnovers. For good measure, he made good on both his free-throw opportunities.

For the season, Fuehrmeyer's assist-to-turnover ratio now sits at 36-to-11, a figure that would lead the Missouri Valley Conference if he had played in enough games to qualify.* I cannot imagine where the Bears' record would be if Fuehry had to sit out longer than he had to.

*I've done a lot of thinking about why I'm so fascinated with Fuehrmeyer and this statistic. All I can come up with is that when I try remember the last time a Bears player dominated any one category, which is what Fuehry is doing with the ATO ratio, I think of Blake Ahearn shooting threes. That's it.

MSU has put a number of players on the floor who did many things moderately well, but nothing exceptionally well. Seriously, before Ahearn, who was the last Bear to dominate one area of the game?

Fuehrmeyer has also developed a knack for saving a ball headed for the out-of-bounds line by flipping it to a teammate. Over his shoulder. Without looking. While careening into the scorer's table. For all that, he's my favorite player who is arguably the best Coach Martin puts on the floor.

Bears v. Shockers

SYS will attend tonight's game at JQH and hopefully will get a few pictures of the action between Missouri State and Wichita (is not a) State. The battle for last place in the Valley is on. It sure would look good on the Shocks.

A Note on Casey Garrison

Without question, the Lady Bears are struggling just as much as the Bears, as Nyla Milleson's bunch is off to an 0-4 start in Valley play. However, freshman Casey Garrison has done nothing but help her team win and is making an early case for Valley Player of the Year honors.

For the season, Garrison is averaging 16 points per game on 75-159 shooting, which is a remarkable 47 percent success rate from the floor.* On top of that, she's made 83 percent of her free throws and leads the team in rebounding with 5.4 boards per game.

*As I mentioned in yesterday's entry, one of my favorite statistics is Points Per Shot. Garrison averages 1.50 (!!!) PPS, which is easily the best figure on her team. I'm quite certain it's also one of the best averages in the country, but the Internet -- wonderful as it is -- still hasn't found a place for advanced and sortable women's college basketball statistics.

Regardless, since we have to provide some kind of context here, it's worth pointing out that the nation's leading scorer, Dawn Evans of James Madison University, averages only 1.24 PPS. Probably a well above-average number, but nowhere in Garrison's neighborhood.

Garrison has also displayed an advanced level of court awareness despite her team-leading 55 turnovers, which I believe can be attributed to the fact she has probably handled the ball on more possessions than her teammates. And rightfully so. With every game, Garrison looks more and more like the best player to wear a Missouri State uniform since Jackie Stiles. Hopefully the Valley championships will return with her.

Is Aggressive Better?

Following a loss at Northern Iowa in which the Panthers shot a record-setting 82 percent in the first half and 70 percent in the game, the Bears are 0-5 in Missouri Valley Conference play. It's miraculous that Missouri State lost by only 14 points, which the Bears accomplished by out shooting UNI at the free throw line.

Northern Iowa was outrageously efficient in their scoring which made me wonder just how efficient the Bears have been this year. The outcome of some research was not surprising.

After a 7-3 start, head coach Cuonzo Martin has seen his team lose six games in a row for the first time in 15 years. While the losses cannot be pinned squarely on Martin's shoulders, some aspects of his coaching style concern me.

First, there is evidence that Martin is not nearly as concerned with statistics as his his predecessor, Barry Hinson. Martin has made it known that he prefers an "aggressive" style of basketball featuring pressure defense similar to the style Southern Illinois and Purdue run. With that comes an aggressive mindset to offense, as the first-year coach has reportedly encouraged his players to take an open shot at every opportunity.

Both can be good strategies, as pressure defense is designed to force opponents into bad shots and turnovers, and taking an open shot is, well, common sense. But from the offensive standpoint, Martin may be taking the idea too far and may be costing his team wins in the process. For example, following the team's win over Central Arkansas, Martin commented on freshman guard Kyle Weems' poor shooting night:

"I was impressed when I saw that Kyle Weems was 2-for-10. Some might say that was a poor percentage. But he was aggressive. That was a plus for him."

Clearly seeing potential in his freshman, Martin has consistently pushed Weems all season to be more assertive in his style of play. Despite that aggressiveness, Weems had to use 10 shots to score nine points, which is an unproductive scoring game no matter which way you slice it. There is nothing impressive about shooting 20 percent from the floor, and whether Martin admits it or not, Weems did more to hurt his team than help it on that particular evening.

The shoot first, ask questions later philosphy goes a long way towards explaining why the Bears have struggled this season. It's obvious that Martin's team has been outscored for the season, but a better way of telling the story is not through counting stats, but rate stats:

              FGM     FGA     PTS     PPS
BEARS         315     816     964     1.18
OPPONENTS     340     772     983     1.27

PPS stands for Points Per Shot, which is one of my favorite advanced basketball statistics. PPS measures how many points a team scores on average every time it takes a shot. This seven percent advantage MSU's opponents have in PPS is evident by looking at the number of three-pointers the Bears have taken this season, as Martin's team has taken 104 more shots than their oppoents from beyond the arc. That can be a great strategy for a team loaded with sharpshooters, but the Bears are far from that distinction. Barring a sudden improvement in shooting percentage, chucking threes is not going to get this team anywhere.

Missouri State opponents have not only outscored the Bears by 19 points on the year, but have done so by using 44 fewer shots which means they have been far more efficient at scoring points. In a game with a finite number of possessions, it is imperative that teams make the most of every trip down the floor. In my mind, Martin should place more focus on efficiency and less on aggressiveness. No matter how tough a team's mindset is, the only thing that matters is having more points than the opponent at the end of the game.

Spencer Laurie Out

According to the News-Leader's Lyndal Scranton, Bears sixth-year senior guard Spencer Laurie is out at least two weeks with a broken hand he suffered during the first half of last night's loss at Evansville. While the loss of Laurie means the Bears will be without their captain and second-leading scorer until the end of January at the earliest, his absence will not be devastating.

Due to an early-season injury to junior point guard Justin Fuehrmeyer, Laurie was forced to play the majority of the team's minutes at the one instead of the two, which he is better suited for as a three-point specialist. However, Fuehrmeyer returned to the lineup one month ago and has proven capable of handling the point, as his 2.7-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio attests.*

*In this sense, Fuehrmeyer is the Bears best bet at the point. In his first two seasons, he posted assist-to-turnover ratios of 3.4- and 2.2-to-1, both times leading the Valley in the category. In a league where the average ratio is about 1-to-1, Fuehry stands out even more. Looking at it simply, the Bears pick up more than two baskets for every turnover when the offense runs through him. For a team that has struggled with scoring, that kind of production cannot be overlooked.

However, the Bears do not have the shooting guard position covered as well, especially if freshman guard Cardell McFarland does not quickly recover from an ankle sprain. In fact, McFarland is the key. While the product of Evansville, Ind. has been careless with the ball so far (30 turnovers in only 14 games), he has shot 41.1 percent from the floor, trailing posts Wade Knapp and Isaiah Rhine and forward Ryan Jehle. In other words, as guards go, McFarland is the most accurate shooter the Bears have on the roster.

Despite the production, McFarland has seen his minutes drastically cut by coach Cuonzo Martin as the graph below indicates:

Stats by StatSheet.com

While some of McFarland's drop in minutes can be attributed to upperclassmen finally getting healthy, there is really no good excuse for Martin's refusal to allow his talented guard to play. Assuming McFarland's ankle heals quickly, he should see more time on the floor while Laurie is on the shelf. If he takes advantage of the opportunity, the Bears will be better for it.

Sixth-Year Senior's First

Hello and welcome to Sixth-Year Senior, a blog dedicated to Missouri State University sports. We are here because it is an exciting time to be a fan of MSU's athletics programs.

While the mens' and womens' basketball teams are off to poor starts in Missouri Valley Conference (MVC) play, coaches Cuonzo Martin and Nyla Milleson lead young squads and a handful of players who can be productive at the Division I level. Additionally, JQH Arena provides Martin and Milleson's teams with a state-of-the-art playing facility that may attract higher-profile recruits to Springfield.

The baseball Bears, led by head coach Keith Guttin, were recently ranked as the 32nd-best team in America by Collegiate Baseball Newspaper (CBN). In 2009, the team returns right-handed pitcher Tim Clubb and first baseman Ben Carlson -- selected by CBN as first and third team preseason All-Americans, respectively -- to a squad that finished 40-17 last season, good for second place in the MVC.

That's just a taste of what we will cover here at Sixth-Year Senior. Whether you're a lifelong fan of the Bears or are just getting started, we hope you will make our site a daily stop for news and commentary on Missouri State athletics.